I think Michigan is a big wildcard Gummi. I have lots of questions regarding the integrity of the 2020 election. The Senate report in '21 raised more questions then it answered and we didn't change anything.
On the ground I'm hoping that Kamala lacks the support/enthusiasm required to maintain the levels of devotion required to support a conspiracy, but my sense is Michigan and Pennsylvania don't come down to voting but actual election integrity. Trump can't win if Dems are going to cheat.
On the encouraging side, I believe the Muslim vote for Trump is real. Dems are losing long standing allies in Michigan to their Puberty Blockers for Kids campaign.
That means we're potentially coming down to Wisconsin deciding it and the odds are 50/50. As far as I know they were able to report on election night in 2020. If we have to wait for PA & MI then it's going to be a month before anyone even thinks about conceding.
Whether Harris can will all Blue Wall states, even if the probability of each state is 50-50, is not 1/8. Each state is not an entirely separate and unrelated event, as a coin flip is. Rather, because trends in one state are also likely to be present in the others, these can not be considered independent probabilities. For example, you could have a polling error underestimating Harris, which would mean she would have a greater than 1/8 likelihood of sweeping.
I think Michigan is a big wildcard Gummi. I have lots of questions regarding the integrity of the 2020 election. The Senate report in '21 raised more questions then it answered and we didn't change anything.
On the ground I'm hoping that Kamala lacks the support/enthusiasm required to maintain the levels of devotion required to support a conspiracy, but my sense is Michigan and Pennsylvania don't come down to voting but actual election integrity. Trump can't win if Dems are going to cheat.
On the encouraging side, I believe the Muslim vote for Trump is real. Dems are losing long standing allies in Michigan to their Puberty Blockers for Kids campaign.
That means we're potentially coming down to Wisconsin deciding it and the odds are 50/50. As far as I know they were able to report on election night in 2020. If we have to wait for PA & MI then it's going to be a month before anyone even thinks about conceding.
Whether Harris can will all Blue Wall states, even if the probability of each state is 50-50, is not 1/8. Each state is not an entirely separate and unrelated event, as a coin flip is. Rather, because trends in one state are also likely to be present in the others, these can not be considered independent probabilities. For example, you could have a polling error underestimating Harris, which would mean she would have a greater than 1/8 likelihood of sweeping.