We may need Special Envoy Donald J. Trump
We may need Special Envoy Donald J. Trump
Trump might be the only person who can get through to Putin
President Donald J. Trump, acting as a special envoy to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine, could be the unconventional solution we need to bring a peaceful resolution to the conflict
And it’s really not as crazy as you think
The situation in a nutshell is as follows:
Putin’s gambit of a quick victory appears to have failed:
Overestimated the capacities of his military (tactical, logistic, preparation, troop morale)
Underestimated the resolve of Ukrainians (leadership, military, citizens)
Underestimated the force and breadth of the foreign reaction
The military options for Russia at this point are extremely costly:
Blunt force sieges against major Ukrainian cities would yield unbearable civilian losses - and possible draw the West into the conflict
Occupation of Ukraine would be extremely costly due to partisan resistance which would slowly bleed the Russian army
A bloody and protracted Russian presence is Ukraine is one possible outcome of this conflict, but would mean the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and would epitomize the notion of a Pyrrhic victory
On the other hand, retreat is also not a viable option for Putin because:
It could means his head…literally - having brought ruin to Russia with nothing to show for it would weaken his power significantly
The humiliation of such a defeat would be too much to bear for the Russian psyche
A defeated Russia is possibly the worst outcome as it would mean a cornered Putin:
If Putin was willing to invade Ukraine because of the potential for future security problems, what would he do with his army defeated and the world aligned against him?
Putin could lash out at those he holds responsible for meddling in his business
The obvious fear here is that Russia resorts to nuclear weapons to either try and claim a victory or just to burn it all down
So the best and most realistic outcome at this point is a negotiated end to hostilities where Putin gets enough concessions that he can claim victory and save face
It’s not clear what this could mean because nobody knows Putin’s true parameters for an acceptable outcome, but the solution would also need to be sold to the world
Why would Trump make sense?
Trump’s intangibles:
Trump is probably the most famous person on the planet and as a former President of the United States he has the stature to fill such a role
Trump may well be the next President of the United States - he is not the typical retired US President that nobody hears from
As demonstrated throughout his presidency, Trump is not in favor of wars
Trump is well positioned to get through to Putin:
There is a per-existing relationship and mutual respect between the two - there is a strange kinship between the two
Trump has spoken nicely about Putin before - never underestimate the Egos of important people
Trump can empathize with Putin about the “establishment” and the “corrupt media”
Trump is not a fan of NATO
This is as much a PR exercise as it is diplomacy:
Any deal would require a narrative whereby everybody can walk away telling their side that they were victorious - Trump can sell this “like no one else can”
Trump would suck all the air out of the war media coverage, allowing Putin to quietly back track on some things he would want people to forget
Putin knows that Trump would immediately become his biggest advocate if a deal were reached - I can just see Trump going on like: “We made the best deal, the greatest deal ever! Nobody could have made a deal as good as this one.”
Putin could want to make a deal with Trump just to troll the hell out of the West - By giving Trump the glory of having negotiated peace, he would be using Trump to send a big middle finger to NATO, the media, Western leaders, etc.
A few practical details:
Trump doesn’t need a title of Special Envoy to try and broker peace, and in fact it’s better that he does not receive any specific mandate. If Russia and Ukraine both agree to it, Trump can participate in negotiations regardless of what the White House or State Department have to say
The timing of his deployment would be crucial. You want to deploy him at just the right moment where the opportunity for a deal is present, but you need to give both sides a nudge towards the other
Trump is sufficiently unconventional that he might succeed where others have failed
As much as the establishment hates Trump, I would hope that giving Trump “the win” is preferable to nuclear war
Trump can’t make things any worse because he has no official power and regardless what he says, people will not hold him to the same standards as a diplomat
Even if he fails, Trump could remain a backdoor channel to the west for Putin
If you think about it, the idea is not as crazy as it sounds
Would Trump want to do it?
Are you kidding me? The chance to “make a deal” that will save the world from nuclear war?
He’s all in!
Edit 3/14 (H/T @LogicalLarry2)
Honorable Mention: Elon Musk
Nice article. One minor doubt: “I would hope that giving Trump “the win” is preferable to nuclear war”
Not to the deep state. Not by a long shot.
If it did work, the deep state would be apoplectic because it would virtually guarantee Trump 2024. I honestly think the deep state would prefer to take their chances with nukes.
I doubt the globalist warmongers think that would be better than a nuclear war. Particularly if it requires Trump, whom they hate with the heat of a thousand suns. He's a nationalist all the way, completely anathema to them and their goal of "spreading liberal democracy" and "nation building" in the countries they've destroyed around the world.
Def. "liberal democracy" - a globalist kleptocracy that allows them to suck up all the wealth and resources through economic collapse and pen up the peasants and peons in labor camps after reducing the world population by about 75%.