Zel is an idiot. Trump, not wanting to put boots on the ground as defense, was doing an end around to allow for private companies to come in and mine Ukraine’s resources. With that, would be the private security details that would protect said companies, ie, mercenaries. It’s a win/win: Zel gets his “security defense”(from private entities). Trump gets his peace deal without any military expenditures and Putin can pipe down cos NATO ain’t knocking on his border.
Instead Zel took the advice of the Dems who are in desperate need of a WW3 to make Trump look bad. Talk about “cutting off your nose, to spite your yada yada yada”🤦🏻
Nice job! Seems like solid analysis. I think the big question is what would happen if Europe's aerial security guarantee gets tested. In response to our back-and-forth on X last night, I had ChatGPT step through the most likely actions should that happen, and it gets interesting... eventually leading to a global nuclear war in 2040 and a fascinating new Earth culture a few hundred years later.
For years, he was hailed a hero. For some, he still is. Now he's exposed.
Here’s the history of the Ukraine & Volodomyr Zelenskyy you won't hear from the media.
Zelenskyy has never had the cards. He isn’t some brave leader calling the shots. He’s a desperate man, clinging to power in a collapsing regime—propped up by Western money, weapons & propaganda. And with Ukraine losing the PR war & real war, he's panicking.
Ukraine wasn't an independent actor in this war. The real power brokers are in Washington, Brussels & London, playing their geopolitical games.
This war was engineered to weaken Russia. To understand that, you need to understand the history that they’ll never tell you.
Ukraine and Russia have been bound together for over 1,000 years. Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, once the heart of Kievan Rus—the first great Slavic state—laid the foundations for Russia itself. Ukraine’s very name means "borderland"—which means the borderland of Russia.
For centuries, it was an integral part of the Russian Empire, not some “oppressed” nation. Even during the Soviet era, Ukraine wasn’t occupied—it was central to the USSR. Even Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev was Ukrainian.
When the USSR collapsed, Ukraine became independent and Washington stepped in—not to help Ukraine, but to weaponise it against Russia.
The U.S. & NATO lied to Gorbachev, promising they wouldn’t expand “one inch eastward." Yet NATO moved into Poland and the Baltic States.
Ukraine was the ultimate NATO prize.
The West poured billions into Ukraine—funding pro-NATO political groups, NGOs & media to manufacture an anti-Russian state.
In 2004, the CIA backed the "Orange Revolution," overturning an election that favoured a pro-Russian candidate.
The real coup came in 2014.
Ukraine’s democratically elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, rejected an EU trade deal that would have destroyed Ukraine’s economy. That was unacceptable to Washington. So they removed him via a manufactured colour revolution.
The so-called "Maidan Revolution" wasn’t a grassroots movement. It was a CIA-backed coup—orchestrated by officials like Victoria Nuland. So brazen was Washington, that Nuland was even caught on a leaked call, handpicking Ukraine’s next leader before Yanukovych was gone.
The violent mobs that took over Kiev weren’t peaceful protesters. They were led by neo-Nazi groups like Azov Battalion—groups that openly celebrate Nazi collaborators and wear SS insignia.
These same groups now receive Western weapons.
The post-coup regime then banned the Russian language—directly attacking millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east.
That’s when Donbass & Crimea said enough. Crimea held a referendum—over 90% voted to return to Russia. The Donbass also voted for independence.
The people of the Donbass rejected Kiev—but Kiev wouldn’t let them go. Instead, they launched a brutal war on their own people, shelling civilians for eight years. Where was the Western outrage? Nowhere!
And what about Zelenskyy? Who is he? Is he an organic leader who came from nowhere or was he installed?
Covert Action reported that, in 2020, Zelenskyy secretly met with MI6 head Richard Moore. Why would a foreign president meet with the UK’s top spy instead of its PM?
Is Zelenskyy a UK asset? According to reports, he is personally protected by British, not Ukrainian security. When he visited the Vatican, he snubbed the Pope and met with a British bishop. Guess who else was there? Richard Moore from MI6 again! That's some coincidence.
Before politics, Zelenskyy was a comedian and actor—literally playing the president on a TV show. Then, with the help of Western PR teams, fiction became reality.
His campaign was funded by oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who owned Ukraine’s largest oil company and bank.
Once in power, Zelenskyy’s priority wasn’t fighting corruption—it was making sure BlackRock & Western banks took over Ukraine’s economy.
Meanwhile, he funnelled millions into offshore accounts, and acquired a $34m mansion in Miami as well as a £multi London apartment.
By 2022, NATO had armed Ukraine to the teeth, and Kiev had amassed forces near Donbass.
Russia had a choice:
Let Donbass face ethnic cleansing;
Let NATO turn Ukraine into a military base;
Or,
Intervene.
They intervened, just as other nations would in those circumstances.
The media screamed “unprovoked invasion.” But NATO expansion, the 2014 coup, eight years of war on Donbass—this war was provoked every step of the way.
Ukraine was set up as a pawn.
With Ukraine losing, Zelenskyy is being abandoned. Donald Trump told him: "You don’t have the cards." And he’s right. This war was engineered. Ukraine needed Western intervention to win and that would mean that WW3 would/could be inevitable. It’s time the world wakes up to that reality.
The war in Ukraine was deliberately provoked by the West. Zelenskyy is just another puppet—his time is running out...and Trump knows that.
this is in agreement with my own studies, and the people online whose 'takes' I trust the most. My own experience is 25+ years reading a multitude of books on real cia policy, particularly its ratlining, absorption, and support for 'captive nation' nazis, such as the ones for whom we fought in the 1990s while bombing Serbia with lies and (literal) bombs.
I long ago read Christopher Simpson's book, I've read John Loftus' 'America's Nazi Secret'. I just don't understand the infatuation some have with 'Ukraine nationalism', which seems to consist of nothing other than Bandera's genocidal racial supremacist ideology.
Zelensky is definitely a puppet, and as an alleged (but not actual) Jew (he has some Jewish ancestry but is not a Jew), he made this movement more acceptable to the West. A swastika tattoo'd Azov fighter would not have gone over well.
The best work on the workings of the OUN lobby are on substack and medium, done by Moss Robeson. I can't get him to stop supporting Arab nazis, but I guess he has to pay his bills somehow--but his work on Ukraine is phenomenal, fully in alignment with that of Simpson, Loftus, and some others that cover real policy. On social media, most are just analyzing propaganda, not addressing real policy.
The problem is that will the eu manage to work together to do what’s best for Ukraine and the western nations. Already the Italian leader has said she won’t commit to sending troops as a part of a peace deal. Von der Leyen was useless as the German defence minister. We will have to hope for the best. Kier Starmer’s first 6 months as prime minister has been disastrous for the UK.
In response to your X post about Rogan platforming people who “ask questions” like Carroll and Martyr Made (I have no X acct., so I can’t respond there), you want to censor these people but what are your limiting principles? If Rogan is as culturally or conceptually relevant as you suggest, Woke would have been stopped after Lindsay’s second or third appearance on JRE. Since my last response on your Substack, I have been convinced both Auron and Darryl Cooper are Woke Right and that disposition or ideological faction does, indeed, exist and is being used as a psy-op to split the Right Wing. However, I do think people should bring up these questions on any platform, and others should get time to rebut. What would help is someone explaining all of the odd “evidence” that the questioners bring up. With the call to censor these people, you create a Scmittian Us vs. Them.
I don't think your take on NATO is going to age well.
Rather I think Trump wants NATO to be limited to nuclear deterrence and ISR missions. That in theory will continue to give the US leverage, prevent nuclear proliferation, and minimize our exposure to where we are weak (demographics and mass production needed for conventional war).
But while that would be great for the US it's a bad deal for our allies under a friendly president. Under a president they don't trust, it will feel suicidal. Nuclear forces are relatively easy to generate. And ISR is explicitly about trust.
Trump wants Russia integrated in Europe and away from China. He needs Europe to swing populist right so Russia is comfortable with a degree of integration and rapprochement. Her needs NATO weakened. He doesn't care about Ukraine because his vision is Russian-European integration, so either way they end up in the same place.
But it'll fail. Russia is learning the wrong lessons. A right wing Europe is not pro integrationist, and Europe will likely move left in opposition to us. Then finally spheres of influence don't work unless there is a massive disparity in power, and Ukraine is showing the disparity isn't there in Europe.
A big premise of this analysis is that for a lasting peace Trump is going to get concessions from Russia. So far there are absolutely NO signs that Trump is going to put any pressure on Putin whatsoever. Trump administration already stated that Ukraine will need to make territorial concessions, that no security guarantees by the US will be given, and particularly NATO membership will be given, they stopped the aid already, cancelled cybersecurity work against Russia, stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine and actively discussing removing of sanctions and turning off Starlink - these are all the bargaining chips that the US had and they simply lose them without any commitment or pushback. As such, this is not really an analysis, this is some wishful thinking on your part, to put in mildly. You voted for Trump and just can’t help but continue to justify the actions of this idiot, even though they are unjustifiable. As somebody who came from socialist county and who screams about freedoms left and right, to support somebody like Trump who wants to single-handedly control everything (aka authoritarianism)… I have no clue how you brain does not break with the mental gymnastics of doing this…
Overall, a very, very nice analysis. In particular, your focus on the key hurdle, i.e., negotiation over the future security of Ukraine. I agree that’ll be the bugger.
I’ve a couple of quibbles however:
I think you’re a little glib with your etc., etc., etc., re. Putin will claim your RX is no different than NATO, b/c, well, he’s right.
I’m assuming from your other comments, however, re. red lines, that w/o the US involved then, yeah, you may view it as not NATO per se (hence your etc., etc., etc. are not necessarily glib).
Also, earlier on, you bandied about misc. (Grok generated?) numbers re. the EU defense sector which I can’t speak to one way or another.
One in particular, however, caught my eye: 500-600 armored vehicles yearly. That’s an awfully broad category, when in fact, the EU pretty much doesn’t even build battle tanks any more (lots of upgrades to existing stock perhaps). Not sure how much this will help backstop things.
If the effective EU air force really does have c. 1,600 warplanes, incl. the F-35’s you mention (nice segue, BTW, to the what Israel did to Iran w/ their F-35s) , then yes, the real backstop would be in the air.
So… back to you overarching view on what’s going to happen…. Yes, this could work.
And to paraphrase your last line: In any case, I am far more optimistic than I was when I first starting reading your post 🤷♂️👍
Zel is an idiot. Trump, not wanting to put boots on the ground as defense, was doing an end around to allow for private companies to come in and mine Ukraine’s resources. With that, would be the private security details that would protect said companies, ie, mercenaries. It’s a win/win: Zel gets his “security defense”(from private entities). Trump gets his peace deal without any military expenditures and Putin can pipe down cos NATO ain’t knocking on his border.
Instead Zel took the advice of the Dems who are in desperate need of a WW3 to make Trump look bad. Talk about “cutting off your nose, to spite your yada yada yada”🤦🏻
Nice job! Seems like solid analysis. I think the big question is what would happen if Europe's aerial security guarantee gets tested. In response to our back-and-forth on X last night, I had ChatGPT step through the most likely actions should that happen, and it gets interesting... eventually leading to a global nuclear war in 2040 and a fascinating new Earth culture a few hundred years later.
An interesting take forwarded from a friend...
For years, he was hailed a hero. For some, he still is. Now he's exposed.
Here’s the history of the Ukraine & Volodomyr Zelenskyy you won't hear from the media.
Zelenskyy has never had the cards. He isn’t some brave leader calling the shots. He’s a desperate man, clinging to power in a collapsing regime—propped up by Western money, weapons & propaganda. And with Ukraine losing the PR war & real war, he's panicking.
Ukraine wasn't an independent actor in this war. The real power brokers are in Washington, Brussels & London, playing their geopolitical games.
This war was engineered to weaken Russia. To understand that, you need to understand the history that they’ll never tell you.
Ukraine and Russia have been bound together for over 1,000 years. Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, once the heart of Kievan Rus—the first great Slavic state—laid the foundations for Russia itself. Ukraine’s very name means "borderland"—which means the borderland of Russia.
For centuries, it was an integral part of the Russian Empire, not some “oppressed” nation. Even during the Soviet era, Ukraine wasn’t occupied—it was central to the USSR. Even Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev was Ukrainian.
When the USSR collapsed, Ukraine became independent and Washington stepped in—not to help Ukraine, but to weaponise it against Russia.
The U.S. & NATO lied to Gorbachev, promising they wouldn’t expand “one inch eastward." Yet NATO moved into Poland and the Baltic States.
Ukraine was the ultimate NATO prize.
The West poured billions into Ukraine—funding pro-NATO political groups, NGOs & media to manufacture an anti-Russian state.
In 2004, the CIA backed the "Orange Revolution," overturning an election that favoured a pro-Russian candidate.
The real coup came in 2014.
Ukraine’s democratically elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, rejected an EU trade deal that would have destroyed Ukraine’s economy. That was unacceptable to Washington. So they removed him via a manufactured colour revolution.
The so-called "Maidan Revolution" wasn’t a grassroots movement. It was a CIA-backed coup—orchestrated by officials like Victoria Nuland. So brazen was Washington, that Nuland was even caught on a leaked call, handpicking Ukraine’s next leader before Yanukovych was gone.
The violent mobs that took over Kiev weren’t peaceful protesters. They were led by neo-Nazi groups like Azov Battalion—groups that openly celebrate Nazi collaborators and wear SS insignia.
These same groups now receive Western weapons.
The post-coup regime then banned the Russian language—directly attacking millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east.
That’s when Donbass & Crimea said enough. Crimea held a referendum—over 90% voted to return to Russia. The Donbass also voted for independence.
The people of the Donbass rejected Kiev—but Kiev wouldn’t let them go. Instead, they launched a brutal war on their own people, shelling civilians for eight years. Where was the Western outrage? Nowhere!
And what about Zelenskyy? Who is he? Is he an organic leader who came from nowhere or was he installed?
Covert Action reported that, in 2020, Zelenskyy secretly met with MI6 head Richard Moore. Why would a foreign president meet with the UK’s top spy instead of its PM?
Is Zelenskyy a UK asset? According to reports, he is personally protected by British, not Ukrainian security. When he visited the Vatican, he snubbed the Pope and met with a British bishop. Guess who else was there? Richard Moore from MI6 again! That's some coincidence.
Before politics, Zelenskyy was a comedian and actor—literally playing the president on a TV show. Then, with the help of Western PR teams, fiction became reality.
His campaign was funded by oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who owned Ukraine’s largest oil company and bank.
Once in power, Zelenskyy’s priority wasn’t fighting corruption—it was making sure BlackRock & Western banks took over Ukraine’s economy.
Meanwhile, he funnelled millions into offshore accounts, and acquired a $34m mansion in Miami as well as a £multi London apartment.
By 2022, NATO had armed Ukraine to the teeth, and Kiev had amassed forces near Donbass.
Russia had a choice:
Let Donbass face ethnic cleansing;
Let NATO turn Ukraine into a military base;
Or,
Intervene.
They intervened, just as other nations would in those circumstances.
The media screamed “unprovoked invasion.” But NATO expansion, the 2014 coup, eight years of war on Donbass—this war was provoked every step of the way.
Ukraine was set up as a pawn.
With Ukraine losing, Zelenskyy is being abandoned. Donald Trump told him: "You don’t have the cards." And he’s right. This war was engineered. Ukraine needed Western intervention to win and that would mean that WW3 would/could be inevitable. It’s time the world wakes up to that reality.
The war in Ukraine was deliberately provoked by the West. Zelenskyy is just another puppet—his time is running out...and Trump knows that.
this is in agreement with my own studies, and the people online whose 'takes' I trust the most. My own experience is 25+ years reading a multitude of books on real cia policy, particularly its ratlining, absorption, and support for 'captive nation' nazis, such as the ones for whom we fought in the 1990s while bombing Serbia with lies and (literal) bombs.
I long ago read Christopher Simpson's book, I've read John Loftus' 'America's Nazi Secret'. I just don't understand the infatuation some have with 'Ukraine nationalism', which seems to consist of nothing other than Bandera's genocidal racial supremacist ideology.
Zelensky is definitely a puppet, and as an alleged (but not actual) Jew (he has some Jewish ancestry but is not a Jew), he made this movement more acceptable to the West. A swastika tattoo'd Azov fighter would not have gone over well.
The best work on the workings of the OUN lobby are on substack and medium, done by Moss Robeson. I can't get him to stop supporting Arab nazis, but I guess he has to pay his bills somehow--but his work on Ukraine is phenomenal, fully in alignment with that of Simpson, Loftus, and some others that cover real policy. On social media, most are just analyzing propaganda, not addressing real policy.
Nice analysis! Thanks for sharing.
This is probably the most deliberate, intelligent analysis of the Ukraine situation I’ve read. Well done, although I’m not surprised.
actually it’s not
The problem is that will the eu manage to work together to do what’s best for Ukraine and the western nations. Already the Italian leader has said she won’t commit to sending troops as a part of a peace deal. Von der Leyen was useless as the German defence minister. We will have to hope for the best. Kier Starmer’s first 6 months as prime minister has been disastrous for the UK.
B
In response to your X post about Rogan platforming people who “ask questions” like Carroll and Martyr Made (I have no X acct., so I can’t respond there), you want to censor these people but what are your limiting principles? If Rogan is as culturally or conceptually relevant as you suggest, Woke would have been stopped after Lindsay’s second or third appearance on JRE. Since my last response on your Substack, I have been convinced both Auron and Darryl Cooper are Woke Right and that disposition or ideological faction does, indeed, exist and is being used as a psy-op to split the Right Wing. However, I do think people should bring up these questions on any platform, and others should get time to rebut. What would help is someone explaining all of the odd “evidence” that the questioners bring up. With the call to censor these people, you create a Scmittian Us vs. Them.
I don't think your take on NATO is going to age well.
Rather I think Trump wants NATO to be limited to nuclear deterrence and ISR missions. That in theory will continue to give the US leverage, prevent nuclear proliferation, and minimize our exposure to where we are weak (demographics and mass production needed for conventional war).
But while that would be great for the US it's a bad deal for our allies under a friendly president. Under a president they don't trust, it will feel suicidal. Nuclear forces are relatively easy to generate. And ISR is explicitly about trust.
Trump wants Russia integrated in Europe and away from China. He needs Europe to swing populist right so Russia is comfortable with a degree of integration and rapprochement. Her needs NATO weakened. He doesn't care about Ukraine because his vision is Russian-European integration, so either way they end up in the same place.
But it'll fail. Russia is learning the wrong lessons. A right wing Europe is not pro integrationist, and Europe will likely move left in opposition to us. Then finally spheres of influence don't work unless there is a massive disparity in power, and Ukraine is showing the disparity isn't there in Europe.
A big premise of this analysis is that for a lasting peace Trump is going to get concessions from Russia. So far there are absolutely NO signs that Trump is going to put any pressure on Putin whatsoever. Trump administration already stated that Ukraine will need to make territorial concessions, that no security guarantees by the US will be given, and particularly NATO membership will be given, they stopped the aid already, cancelled cybersecurity work against Russia, stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine and actively discussing removing of sanctions and turning off Starlink - these are all the bargaining chips that the US had and they simply lose them without any commitment or pushback. As such, this is not really an analysis, this is some wishful thinking on your part, to put in mildly. You voted for Trump and just can’t help but continue to justify the actions of this idiot, even though they are unjustifiable. As somebody who came from socialist county and who screams about freedoms left and right, to support somebody like Trump who wants to single-handedly control everything (aka authoritarianism)… I have no clue how you brain does not break with the mental gymnastics of doing this…
Overall, a very, very nice analysis. In particular, your focus on the key hurdle, i.e., negotiation over the future security of Ukraine. I agree that’ll be the bugger.
I’ve a couple of quibbles however:
I think you’re a little glib with your etc., etc., etc., re. Putin will claim your RX is no different than NATO, b/c, well, he’s right.
I’m assuming from your other comments, however, re. red lines, that w/o the US involved then, yeah, you may view it as not NATO per se (hence your etc., etc., etc. are not necessarily glib).
Also, earlier on, you bandied about misc. (Grok generated?) numbers re. the EU defense sector which I can’t speak to one way or another.
One in particular, however, caught my eye: 500-600 armored vehicles yearly. That’s an awfully broad category, when in fact, the EU pretty much doesn’t even build battle tanks any more (lots of upgrades to existing stock perhaps). Not sure how much this will help backstop things.
If the effective EU air force really does have c. 1,600 warplanes, incl. the F-35’s you mention (nice segue, BTW, to the what Israel did to Iran w/ their F-35s) , then yes, the real backstop would be in the air.
So… back to you overarching view on what’s going to happen…. Yes, this could work.
And to paraphrase your last line: In any case, I am far more optimistic than I was when I first starting reading your post 🤷♂️👍
A must watch for some history and perspective on Ukraine: https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/honda-moves-manufacturing-of-new-civic-hybrid-from-mexico-to-us-report/ar-AA1AaaPL?ocid=BingNewsSerp