Beware the Covid Bait and Switch
The next variant is just around the corner
A month ago I wrote “The Covid Doctrine” which laid out what was admittedly a more pessimistic view of how I thought public health policy towards Covid-19 would play out in 2022.
In short, my point was as follows:
New variants are guaranteed to occur
Even milder variants will continue to cause some deaths, as is the case with existing “common-cold” coronaviruses which regularly kill old, sick people
So long as we are mass testing, future variants will continue to cause deaths, and health officials will revert to the “Covid Doctrine” which is to recommend the same exact measures that have been used until now: masks, school closures, quarantine, vaccines/boosters, vaccine passports, restrictions, etc
But things have really shifted since I wrote “The Covid Doctrine”!
We are seeing a complete change in the politics of Covid at the state level, even though the position of the CDC and health experts has remained largely unchanged since then.
What happened?
Politics happened!
In the last article I wrote:
“Political change is the only real solution, but that requires voting and lots of it because you need strong political mandates to try and make the institutional changes necessary to fix a broken system. The upcoming elections will be crucial in this sense.”
And this is in fact what happened: the politics changed.
If you listen to today’s episode of NYT’s The Daily, they break it down very clearly:
The results of the November 2021 elections were a wake-up call for Democrats
Recent focus groups and polls have revealed how unpopular Covid measures are with voters
So basically, Democrats at the state level flinched due to direct pressure from their constituents.
At the federal level, not much has really changed in terms of the recommended measures or their attitude towards the pandemic.
There have also been big changes in the way measures are discussed in the media, but again this has followed, not driven, the changing tone of state Democrats.
Of particular note: they haven’t really admitted any faults in their previous analysis/reporting. All they are saying is “the science has changed”.
Only the science has not changed.
The position of the federal government, including the CDC and White House, remains the same which is to recommend masks and certain restrictions.
See, this is how easily they can change the narrative. They have no shame about ruining their credibility or fear that they might be fact-checked. They say “the science” and large swathes of the population obediently nod their heads.
Honestly, were it not for the federal system, we would probably not be seeing these changes in the US.
In places like Canada and other European Countries, the central government has a much larger role in dictating public health policy. Whatever the Prime Minister says, goes…which is why Boris Johnson can reverse all policy on Covid if he ever finds himself in a political pickle (Party-Gate).
The truckers in Canada have an uphill battle because they are going head to head with Fidel Castro’s alleged illegitimate love-child: Justin Trudeau. Until Trudeau decides to make changes, the restrictions remain in place.
I have a lot of respect for what Canadians are doing and I believe that if they can hold firm, they can apply enough pressure for changes to be made. Truckers have finally figure out what everyone knew back in the 60s and 70s: the world grounds to a halt when goods don’t make it onto store shelves in cities.
Overall, I’m very encouraged by progress in the past month towards returning our societies to normal. A number of European Countries have ended restrictions. Many blue states are moving in that direction. Greater parts of the public are starting to make themselves heard though it took almost two years of Covid restrictions to get there.
If you compare the landscape today to one month ago it’s night and day, so I’m actually very optimistic seeing that political pressure is creating change before elections roll around. Though this doesn’t change the importance of upcoming elections nor the reasons for voting out the people responsible.
But!
Another wave is guaranteed to come. So long as we’re testing, we’ll have plenty of cases and deaths are inevitable. In fact, I’m not sure that some blue states don’t go back to restrictions the moment cases start to rise. Psychologically, I don’t think a lot of people on the left are in an endemic state of mind.
My point is that no progress made in the past month is irreversible.
Remember, the easing of restrictions is not motivated by “the science”. It’s not Fauci or Eric Ding who are saying that it’s time to live with Covid…it’s the politicians who are doing it out of personal interest.
And it’s not even all the red-state politicians…just the ones feeling the pressure. While New Jersey’s Democrat governor has been more bullish on removing restrictions following his near loss in November to a Republican no-name, New York has no problem in continuing to mask children because of “the science”.
The Covid Doctrine has suffered a setback, but it is not dead and not nearly buried.
Consider this very sensible tweet by an epidemiologist who I think has been on the cautious end of the spectrum with regards to Covid measures.
She makes a very logical point, but if you read the responses of her followers you will see a different mindset and a completely different understanding of the pandemic.
Anyways, let’s hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Remain vigilant and involved…this is not over by a long shot.
Keep on Honking!
Another variant will come, another wave will be predicted and any vaccine immunity will have waned (into negative territory?).
In this eye of the storm we need to ensure all emergency powers are removed and can never be used again.
By Summer we should have another variant so ppl can mail in votes, they can stand in line for hours to be tested Covid but not voting. I've become so cynical .........