An Election Reality Check
The Choice That’s Upon Us
Trump vs Kamala is about what policies we get for the next 4 years and where our country (and by extension it's people if not the world) will be in 2028. Nothing more, nothing less.
Social media gives one the impression that all (or even most) people supporting Trump are part of a MAGA cult because those types of people are the most active/visible, the loudest and, let's be honest, the most obnoxious at times.
But I can assure you that the people supporting Trump come in all shapes and forms.
I'm restating the obvious, but this is a binary choice, and there's only Trump or Kamala to vote for.
Most people on the middle or right are not opposed to Trump's policies...in fact, he's the most moderate Republican candidate in recent memory.
If you're a conservative and .think he's not conservative enough, at least you'll get some of the policy you want with him. You'll get nothing with Kamala.
So what people object to are not his political agenda, but rather the man himself. But whether he becomes the next president or not, he will be out of politics come 2028 by virtue of his age.
The changes he has made to the party in terms of realigning the party towards the working/middle class is not going to change after he's out of politics. There's a new, and very normal cyclical, political realignment taking place on both sides. The idea that Republicans will get their party back if Trump loses is wrong.
There are aspect to the new Republican party that I'm not terribly keen on, but you're never going to get everything you want from a policy perspective when you're in a two party system...not even the hardcore MAGA types get everything they actually want. Rather, you're a collection of interest groups and at the end of the day you have to decide whether the totality of a party's agenda is better than the other's.
So no, Trump is not just about a MAGA cult. I know people who can't stand Trump, who have never voted for him, but would walk through fire to vote for him because of what he opposes. It's not just about Trump. It's a binary choice, and if you believe that Trump will govern better then you should vote for him.
There's also no way to predict what a Trump presidency would mean going forward beyond 2028. Anybody who thinks they can map out a path for how politics or world events will evolve in 5-10 years is delusional. We can't even predict what's going to happen next month or even next week.
“We’ll be better off without Trump” is only half of the equation. The other half is recognizing that this means Kamala as President.
The “No Longer” Trump Movement
I was one of the early supporters of Ron DeSantis’ presidential run. I’ve made the case repeatedly for why he is by far the best candidate. I also found the campaign that Trump and his surrogates ran against DeSantis very dishonest…yes it really pissed me off.
Look, I’m not MAGA nor am I very high on Trump. He has repeatedly let us down with his narcissism and undisciplined temperament. And what drives me crazy is that he doesn’t realize that he’s supposed to serve us rather than us being loyal to him.
However, he was the choice of the Republican party so he’s the candidate, full stop. As such I support him because it’s a binary choice between Trump and Kamala Harris. The policy differences between the two, and given what has happened under Biden-Harris since 2020 makes this an obvious rational choice.
That’s not how all people on the right see this election. For many of them it’s a referendum on Trump and MAGA. And we’re not talking about Never Trumpers here…I could never stand those. We’re talking about people who have supported Trump the past and can no longer do so. I get it and I won’t condemn anybody for being a conscientious objector. After all, I wrote this scathing analysis about the rise of the woke right!
But I do want people to know what they’ll get if Trump loses:
Four years of President “Border Czar” Kamala Harris: The influx of migrants will continue for another four years. Maybe less than with Biden, or maybe more, but nothing significant will be done to fundamently change the system.
Economic Stagflation: Government spending is the raison d'etre for Progressive Democrats. That’s their entire political ideology, regardless of what they might say publicly. Look at what “moderate” Tim Walz did in Minnesota after re-election as governor in 2022 when he had house majorities…he blew out the spending. Kamala will want her own signature spending bills and as such we’re likely to see a worsening of inflation while the economy is on the brink of a recession.
Foreign Policy Disasters: Biden-Harris has been an unmitigated disaster in foreign policy. Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, with Taiwan looming…its been a shit show of appeasement. Kamala would be worse. She knows absolutely nothing about foreign policy or the greater world as whole….she’s clueless on this topic. I don’t subscribe to WW3 catastrophizing, but that doesn’t mean we won’t eventually get there is the incompetence continues.
Green Economic and Energy Policy: The artificial push for green measures to combat climate change have been disastrous for the economy. Even if you’re firmly convinced that climate represents an existential threat, you’re not
The Continued Long March Through the Institutions: Our country needs a major reform of institutions that have been ideologically captured by the progressive left: public administration, big government, academia…etc. You can only me changes if you win elections. Losing this election will ensure even more entrenchment by leftist ideologues.
So before you gleefully rejoice in Trump losing, keep in mind that there are consequences to losing an election.
The Final Analysis
Ultimately, it’s a very simple decision because you can not claim to know what the world will look like in 2028. The best you can do is look at where we are in 2024 and ask yourself which candidate will do a better job as president based on what you currently know.
“But at least we’ll get Trump out and take the party back to conservatism” some people say. Well not so fast.
First, this is Trump’s last hurrah and MAGA is a party of one politician: Donald J. Trump. His popularity is non-transferable as we seen by how (not) successful Kari Lake and his other endorsed candidates have been. Whether he wins or not, the Republican Party will move on after Donald Trump.
This idea that you'll get forever-Trump if he wins in November is wrong. Electing Trump does not mean that Laura Loomer is the future of the Republican party...that's an emotional reaction. What Trump is, isn't transferable to the obnoxious people on X that many of you can't stand. Trump is a movement of one and he will shortly age out of relevance as a political figure.
Second, we’re in the middle of a political realignment and the old Republican party is not coming back no matter what happens. Conservatives, of which I am one, are going to be one of multiple groups vying for ideological influence in what is essentially a coalition of different interest groups.
Be careful what you wish for. Things never seem to work out as you envision them and sacrificing an election for the possibility that the party will get better is short sighted in my opinion. I see too many people’s judgment on this clouded by emotions or personal animus against Trump himself.
We can’t predict the future, but the more information we have, the better our ability make rational decisions. Right now we have a very simple decision to make: If you actually believe that the totality of four years of Trump will be better than four years of Kamala, then you're not accomplishing anything long term by not voting for him. Don’t conflate the decision on November 5th, with the bigger question of where you want our politics to be in 2028 because it’s unknowable right now.
So unless you can convince yourself that you will be better of in the next 4 years with Kamala as President, then the most logical option is Trump.
similarly, I also thought RDS was *by far* the best candidate. He was by far the most uppity, pro civil rights politician during the 'pandemic'. I feel like we are trapped in some awful reality show. Here is what bothers me about Trump: much like we saw a lot of bs and theatrics during the 'pandemic', both Charlottesville and Jan 6 were clearly nothing more than government orchestrated theater acted out with government provocateurs. They were not *real* events. But Trump never states this. He just sort of rolls with the punches. Perhaps it is because when the mass media says it is real, maybe he thinks he just has to treat it as real. But also, unlike RDS, he did not expose all of the covid fascism as bs. So although I think Trump is the only viable choice, it's not a good thing that he does not blow the lid on the amount of big-lie bs being pushed onto Americans.
"Trump...has repeatedly let us down with his narcissism and undisciplined temperament." I wrote this on another blog a few years ago. It still applies today.
Regarding Trumps narcissism...Compared exactly to whom in 2016? Hillary? Jeb!? (You might have a point if you compared him to my first choice, Dr. Ben Carson.) Politicians, by their very nature, are narcissistic. Everyone one of them believes they have (or ARE) the solution to what ills the school board/county/town/state/country. It’s why they run for office. So under what measure was he more (narcissistic) than any other candidate at the time (or today)?
“Why (does Trump have) such huge support?” Precisely because he was never a polished, career politician that lived exclusively on political donations and a salary paid by taxpayers for his entire adult life. People had had enough of being promised this and promised that “if you vote for me!” during campaign season, then getting ignored or otherwise treated as something on the bottom of the average politician’s shoe. Trump came along and ran as the non-politician that spoke as any other regular New Yorker you might meet on the street. He had real-world experience in the private sector including working side-by-side with labor unions, non-unionized labor, and executives. There was no political double-speak, no talking over the heads or talking down to the people who attended his rallies. The message was simple, ‘I’m not one of them in Washington’; and that’s perhaps why ‘they’, both Political Parties, had and still have so much disdain and contempt for him (and now his supporters, too.) He’s not part of their club, their high-society, pearl-clutching, membership club.
Americans on both sides of the isle saw just how out of touch the political-class was (still is) with the people who work 9–5, 40 hours, take your lunch to work, sit in hours long commutes (uphill, both ways in three feet of snow - you know what I mean). Washington was (still is) far more concerned with their own power over the rest of the country. Trump isn’t.
Binary choice? Yes. As it should be. The choice should never only be between two swamp creatures who've lived their life feeding at the taxpayers trough.